Another Day — and More Silver Pours Into JP Morgan

14 April 2017 — Friday


The gold price didn’t do much of anything in Far East or London trading on their respective Thursdays.  There was a five dollar down draft going into the London p.m. gold fix — and it crawled steadily higher from there until shortly before the COMEX close.  The price traded pretty flat from that point onwards.

The low and high ticks definitely aren’t worth looking up.

Gold finished the Thursday session in New York at $1,287.80 spot, up $1.20 from Wednesday’s close.  Net volume was very heavy once again at just over 221,00 contracts.

Silver traded a few pennies higher for most of the day yesterday — and its 18.605 high tick came a minute or so after 11 a.m. BST in London.  Like gold, it ran into the same price down draft just before the London p.m. gold fix — and it inched higher into the close from there as well.

I shan’t bother with the high or low ticks in this precious metal, either.

Silver closed in New York on Thursday at $18.515 spot, up 6 cents on the day.  Net volume was pretty heavy at just over 62,000 contracts, with fairly impressive roll-over/switch volume out of May.

Platinum’s price path was similar to silver’s for the second day running…and complete with the tiny spike down before the p.m. gold fix.  It rallied quickly back into positive territory before trading mostly sideways for the rest of the Thursday session.  Platinum was closed yesterday at $972 spot, up a buck from Wednesday.

Palladium began to chop unevenly higher starting around 10 a.m. CST on their Thursday morning — and back above $800 spot.  A not-for-profit seller appeared shortly after 9 a.m. in New York and stair-stepped the price lower until the COMEX close.  The price didn’t do much of anything after that.  Palladium closed on Thursday at $794 spot — and down another 5 dollars.

The dollar index closed very late on Wednesday afternoon in New York at 100.13 — and then traded pretty flat until shortly before 10 a.m. Shanghai Standard Time on their Thursday morning.  It touched the 100.02 mark at 10:30 a.m. CST, which was its low of the day — and began to crawl higher from that point onward.  The rally picked up steam starting around 1 p.m. CST — and the 100.59 high was placed around 4:15 p.m. in New York.  It didn’t do much after that, finishing the Thursday session at 100.58 — and up 45 basis points from its close on Wednesday.

And here’s the 6-month U.S. dollar index — and, as usual, you can read into it whatever you wish.

The gold stocks gapped up a percent and change at the open on Thursday morning in New York, but quickly crashed back into negative territory, with the low tick of the day coming a minute or so after 10 a.m. EDT.  They chopped higher from there in a fairly wide range — and back into positive territory.  Their respective highs came around 1:05 p.m.  They headed lower from there — and despite the fact that the gold price itself was crawling higher, couldn’t squeeze a positive close.  The HUI finished the Thursday session down 0.14 percent.

The silver equities gapped up about two percent — and even though they sold off a bit from there, never came anywhere near negative territory for the rest of the Thursday session.  Their respective highs came minutes before 11 a.m. EDT — and they sold off quietly and unevenly lower into the close of trading from there.  Nick Laird’s Intraday Silver Sentiment/Silver 7 Index finished up 1.58 percent.  Click to enlarge if necessary.

The CME Daily Delivery Report showed that 7 gold and zero silver contracts were posted for delivery within the COMEX-approved depositories on Tuesday.  Nothing to see here and, once again, the link to yesterday’s Issuers and Stoppers Report is here, but it’s not worth the trip.

The CME Preliminary Report for the Thursday trading session showed that gold open interest in April fell by 46 contracts, leaving 1,753 still open.  Wednesday’s Daily Delivery Report showed that 2 gold contracts were actually posted for delivery on Monday, so that means that 46-2=44 gold contracts disappeared from April without either making or taking delivery.  Silver o.i. in April declined by 119 contracts leaving only 80 still around.  Wednesday’s Daily Delivery Report showed that zero silver contracts were posted for delivery on Monday, so that means that 119 silver contracts disappeared from April without either making or taking delivery.  I found this surprising considering the fact that open interest in silver had been building for the prior five reporting days — and then watch it all vanish into thin air just now.

There was another large deposit in GLD yesterday, as an authorized participant added 209,410 troy ounces.  And as of 8:02 p.m. EDT yesterday evening, there were no reported changes in SLV.

There was no sales report from the U.S. Mint.

It was a very quiet day in gold over at the COMEX-approved depositories on the U.S. east coast on Wednesday.  They didn’t report receiving any — and the 289.359 troy ounces/9 kilobars [SGE kilobar weight] came out of Brink’s, Inc.  I won’t bother linking this tiny amount of activity.

But it was all guns blazing in silver again, as 1,205,429 troy ounces were received — and 1,276,429 troy ounces were shipped out.  All of the ‘in’ activity…two containers…went into JP Morgan’s vault, bringing their total COMEX silver stash up to a hair under 99 million troy ounces, which is a bit over 52 percent of all the silver held in the eight registered COMEX depositories.  The ‘out’ activity consisted of a container load out of both CNT and Scotiabank.  A link to all of that action is here.

It was a busy day over at the COMEX-approved gold kilobar depositories in Hong Kong on their Wednesday.  They received 7,222 of them — and shipped out 3,324.  All of this activity was at Brink’s, Inc. — and another link to it is here.

Here are two charts that Nick Laird passed around shortly before 1 a.m. Denver time this morning.  They compare the price activity in gold’s first bull run in the 1970s…against the current bull run that started back in 2000 — and continues right into 2017Click to enlarge on both.

I have very few stories for you today — and with the long weekend upon us, I hope you can find the time for the ones that interest you.


Bill Gross: “All Asset Prices Are Elevated to Artificial Levels

Bill Gross’s latest monthly outlook [for April] is divided into two sections: in the first, the world’s former bond king provides a revealing glimpse into his mind courtesy of six brainteasers (with answers to questions such as “If forced to choose between killing your favorite pet or an anonymous human being, what would you do?”); in the second he goes back to his favorite topic: slamming the Trump growth narrative Can the Trump Agenda recreate 3{f02ffe5e8b39fd7974c2720d01ccf381ddc9ebb4164215842085b3c57e4f642e} growth?

The answer: he cites an IMF study which suggests that “unless there is an unforeseen technological breakthrough, productivity growth is unlikely to return to the higher rates of the 1990’s for advanced economics or the early 2000’s for emerging economics. In other words, their warning speaks to a global productivity slowdown, not just a U.S. based phenomena. They warn that increasing tariffs and developing restrictions on immigration will only exacerbate the slowdown. Global growth, and of course U.S. growth, will be lower than average, they forecast.

Which then leads to the following, not unexpected conclusion about assets prices:

Equity markets are priced for too much hope, high yield bond markets for too much growth, and all asset prices elevated to artificial levels that only a model driven, historically biased investor would believe could lead to returns resembling the past six years, or the decades predating Lehman. High rates of growth, and the productivity that drives it, are likely distant memories from a bygone era.

Then again we assume that Gross’ note was written before yesterday’s stunning “Trump flip.” What we are far more curious about, is whether now that the president is on board with his Goldman advisory committee, and is pushing for a weaker dollar and lower rates (i.e., an end to Fed tightening and more QEasing), and thus, more doves on the FOMC, whether Gross will likewise flip his opinion of Trump in the next monthly letter.

This commentary by Bill Gross was posted on the Zero Hedge website at 9:09 a.m. on Thursday morning EDT — and I thank Richard Saler for sending it along.  Another link to it is here.

Wells Fargo Just Reported the Worst Mortgage Number Since the Financial Crisis

When we reported Wells Fargo’s Q4 earnings back in January, we drew readers’ attention to one specific line of business, the one we dubbed the bank’s “bread and butter”, namely mortgage lending, and which as we then reported was “the biggest alarm” because “as a result of rising rates, Wells’ residential mortgage applications and pipelines both tumbled, specifically in Q4 Wells’ mortgage applications plunged by $25bn from the prior quarter to $75bn, while the mortgage origination pipeline plunged by nearly half to just $30 billion, and just shy of all time lows recorded in late 2013 and 2014.”

Fast forward one quarter when what was already a troubling situation, just got as bad as it has been since the financial crisis for America’s largest mortgage lender, because buried deep in its presentation accompanying otherwise unremarkable Q1 results (EPS small beat, revenue small miss), Wells just reported that its ‘bread and butter’ is virtually gone, and in Q1 the amount of all-important Mortgage Applications has tumbled by a whopping 23{f02ffe5e8b39fd7974c2720d01ccf381ddc9ebb4164215842085b3c57e4f642e} to just $59 billion, below the lows hit in early 2014, and at fresh lows since the financial crisis.

And while Wells’ application pipeline was not quite as dire, it too was just shy of fresh post crisis lows at only $28 billion, in line with the lowest numbers reported this decade.

The lagging mortgage originations number was nearly as bad, plunging 39{f02ffe5e8b39fd7974c2720d01ccf381ddc9ebb4164215842085b3c57e4f642e} sequentially from $72 billion to only $44 billion, “due to higher rates and seasonality.” Since this number lags the mortgage applications, we expect it to post fresh post-crisis lows in the coming quarter.

What these number disturbingly reveal, is that the average U.S. consumer can not afford to take out mortgages at a time when rates rise by as little as 1{f02ffe5e8b39fd7974c2720d01ccf381ddc9ebb4164215842085b3c57e4f642e} or so, which is where they peaked in the first quarter. It also means that if the Fed is truly intent in engineering a parallel shift in the curve of 2-3{f02ffe5e8b39fd7974c2720d01ccf381ddc9ebb4164215842085b3c57e4f642e}, the U.S. can kiss its domestic housing market goodbye.

This brief 2-chart Zero Hedge article, which is worth reading, was posted on their website at 8:32 a.m. EDT on Friday morning — and is courtesy of Brad Robertson.  Another link to it is here.

The Bank Was Saved — and the People Were Ruined – Part II — Dennis Miller

Despite Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s expression of confidence in raising the federal funds rates, the worst of the tragic consequences of the government bank bailouts is yet to come. Part II of “The People Were Ruined” is on the horizon, and “the people” are going to suffer dramatically.

William Gouge (1796-1863) was credited with the famous quote. His premise is still alive and well. Banks create boom and bust cycles through irresponsible lending. When “bust” comes along it is a surprise and a crisis. Everyone suffers except the political class and banks.

Why? The banks make enormous profits on the upside. When they suffer losses, not only do the taxpayers end up bailing out the banking system, the collateral damage can also be dramatic. The banks are saved and the people suffer.

This very worthwhile commentary showed up on Dennis’s website on Thursday — and another link to it is here.

Trump Flips on Five Core Campaign Promises in Under 24 Hours

Blink, and you missed Trump’s blistering, seamless transformation into a mainstream politician.

In the span of just a few hours, President Trump flipped to new positions on several core policy issues, backing off on no less than five repeated campaign promises.

In a WSJ interview and a subsequent press conference, Trump either shifted or completely reversed positions on a number of foreign and economic policy decisions, including the fate of the U.S. Dollar, how to handle China and the future of the chair of the Federal Reserve.

Add to this Trump’s first, most prominent reversal, the launch of air strikes on Syria last Friday after repeatedly bashing Obama for even considering that, and Trump’s transformation into a mainstream politician now appears complete.

Yep, as I said in last Saturday’s column, Trump is now Deep State road kill.  His conversion to the Dark Side of The Force is virtually complete.  This Zero Hedge commentary appeared on their Internet site at 5:03 a.m. EDT on Friday morning — and it’s courtesy of Brad Robertson as well.  Another link to it is here — and it’s worth skimming.

Puerto Rico seen sliding toward bankruptcy as deadline nears

Bankruptcy for Puerto Rico is looking ever more likely as the clock ticks down toward a May 1 deadline to restructure $70 billion in debt, ramping up uncertainty for anyone betting on returns from the island’s widely held U.S. municipal bonds.

When U.S. Congress last year passed the Puerto Rico rescue law dubbed PROMESA, it froze creditor lawsuits against the island so its federally appointed oversight board and creditors could negotiate out of court on the biggest debt restructuring in U.S. municipal history.

The freeze expires on May 1, however, and an extension by Congress is “not going to happen,” said a Republican aide to the House Committee on Natural Resources, which is in charge of territory matters.

A round of mediated talks is scheduled to begin on Thursday. But absent an agreement soon, a growing number of analysts say Puerto Rico will seek protection from creditors under PROMESA’s court-sanctioned restructuring process, akin to U.S. bankruptcy.

Forbearance deals could let negotiations continue past May 1, but a source directly involved in the talks said avoiding an eventual bankruptcy is “impossible.”

This Reuters news item, filed from New York, showed up on their Internet site at 3:00 a.m. EDT on Wednesday morning — and I thank Brad Robertson for pointing it out.  Another link to it is here.

Were the children dead at all?” Assad says Syria chemical attack “100 per cent fabrication

Syrian president Bashar al-Assad has accused the U.S. of fabricating last week’s chemical attack to justify a military strike, even as British investigators confirmed the use of toxic sarin gas.

In his first interview since the attack on the northern opposition-held town of Khan Sheikhoun which left 86 dead and hundreds injured, Assad said his regime could not be responsible as they were no longer in possession of any chemical weapons.

Our impression is that the West, mainly the United States, is hand-in-glove with the terrorists,” Mr Assad told AFP news agency, referring to rebels which control the area. “They fabricated the whole story in order to have a pretext for the attack.”

It’s stage one, the play [they staged] that we saw on social network and TVs, then propaganda and then stage two, the military attack,” he said, questioning the authenticity of the video footage which drew international outrage.

Graphic footage showed men, women and children gasping for breath, convulsing and foaming at the mouth.

We don’t know whether those dead children were killed in Khan Sheikhoun. Were they dead at all?

This news item put in an appearance on the Internet site at 3:59 p.m. BST on their Thursday afternoon, which was 10:59 p.m. in Washington — EDT plus 5 hours.  The embedded 6:38 minute video interview with Bashar al-Assad is definitely worth watching.  It comes courtesy of Roy Stephens — and another link to it is here.

The Gold Chronicles: April 2017 Interview with Jim Rickards and Alex Stanczyk

Topics Include:

* Commentary and analysis of military action in Syria in response to what appears to be nerve gas attacks on civilian population
* U.S. President Trump authorized release of 59 Tomahawk Land Attack Missiles targeting Shayrat airbase
* Discussion of the USS Carl Vinson carrier group deployment towards the north west pacific in the vicinity of North Korea
* What triggers cause countries to go to war in history
* Are current events a series of unfortunate miscalculations
* Discussion of North Korea’s nuclear weapons capability
* When analyzing potential threat, there are two factors: Capability, and Intentions
* How U.S. policy regarding nuclear weapons programs has possibly sent the wrong message to Kim Jong-Un
* The intersection of kinetic, cyber, and financial warfare, and role of fiat payment transfer systems as opposed to gold

This 59:38 minute audio interview, with a linked transcript, was posted on the Internet site on Wednesday — and I thank Harold Jacobsen for sharing it with us.  Another link to it is here.

Goldholics Anonymous

With the rising global political tensions, gold has gotten a bid over the past week. But is that what is driving the price?

Even though there is a tendency amongst traders to assume gold is just an inverse U.S. dollar play, the above chart shows that the relationship is loose at best. [A chart John Hathaway sent me last year showed that the correlation was less than 40 percent. – Ed]

But maybe we are looking at the wrong currency. While I was stumbling around my chart book, I came upon a chart of gold versus the Japanese Yen.

Whereas the gold/U.S. dollar index is tough to spot, the gold/Yen relationship is obvious. And most interestingly, since the beginning of 2016, it seems to have strengthened.

The decrease in the standard deviation of the error from 1.044 to 0.703 in the latest period shows how much the relationship has tightened up.

I am not sure what this means exactly. If I didn’t know better, I would be tempted to guess that the Bank of Japan is pegging their currency to the price of gold.

Well, dear reader, the real driving factors for the gold price is the dos-à-dos between the commercial traders on one side — and the Managed Money traders on the other.  But the correlation between the yen/gold index is uncanny — and for that reason, this gold-related news item that appeared on the Zero Hedge website at 8:52 a.m. EDT on Friday morning, is more than worth your while.  I thank Marvin Wieler for bringing it to my attention — and now to yours.  Another link to it is here.

Tocqueville Gold Strategy Investment Letter: First Quarter 2017

We believe he would have little problem scapegoating the Fed and the intellectual elites that have crafted the failed public policies of the past two decades. The appeal of gold is visceral and consonant with the anti-elite sentiment of populism. So much the better for the barbarous relic.

The possibility that gold might be incorporated into a formal monetary role by the Trump administration is obviously pure speculation and inference on our part. It is a speculation that does not by itself constitute a rationale for investing in gold or related stocks. We have already provided extensive discussions for the investment rationale; for example, here and here. However, the possibility is an intriguing outlier, which one is paying next to nothing for at the current gold price. One could have said something similar as to Trump’s chances on the evening of November 4, 2016.

In the absence of a credible monetary standard, we expect no escape from the treadmill of rising debt, both US and globally, that outpaces economic growth. Income inequality, wage stagnation, overvaluation of financial assets, and speculation instead of productive investment are likely to be prolonged under the current monetary regime. Whether or not policy makers take a proactive approach to address monetary reform, the fact remains that gold is massively underpriced in all paper currencies. It would be preferable if the necessary adjustments could occur without a repeat of a 2008-like financial crisis. We give this possibility a chance, albeit slim. In any event, we expect a significant repricing of gold higher during the current administration, either by design or because of market events. Whenever a repricing happens, we expect broad grassroots support for that outcome.

This Q1 commentary from John is bereft of any mention of nefarious forces at the work in the precious metal market.  In past quarters he had been edging ever closer to saying out loud, what we’ve know for a decade or more — and that’s that their prices are managed by bullion banks in the COMEX futures market.  I would suspect that his elevation to CEO of Tocqueville put an end to that candor.  It’s worth reading, but there’s not much in it that you haven’t already read elsewhere.  Another link to it is here.

Ross Norman: Gold Poised – $1,291 Is a Game Changer

Gold is poised to crack the critically important $1291 level which is a trend line going to back to the all time high on September 22nd 2011 when gold hit $1922 an ounce.

Conclusively breaching this trend line is to say we are very much back in a bull run. With $1291 breached there would only be the minor inconvenience of the psychologically important $1300 level – more of a speed bump than a real resistance level – before gold is able to move higher largely unfettered. See chart below.

Since 2000 gold has notched up an average of a 11{f02ffe5e8b39fd7974c2720d01ccf381ddc9ebb4164215842085b3c57e4f642e} year-on-year gain compounded – that is four times a UK property, double a London property and three times what the Dow Jones Index has achieved. And yet it remains a minority sport … arguably the best kept secret in financial markets (we are less than 0.5{f02ffe5e8b39fd7974c2720d01ccf381ddc9ebb4164215842085b3c57e4f642e} of global assets under management).

2017 looks likely to achieve well north of the run rate of 11{f02ffe5e8b39fd7974c2720d01ccf381ddc9ebb4164215842085b3c57e4f642e} and Sharps Pixley has forecasted an average for the year at $1310 … a 15{f02ffe5e8b39fd7974c2720d01ccf381ddc9ebb4164215842085b3c57e4f642e} gain … and we may well have under-estimated the potential. With the Relative Strength Indicator at only 65, there is still plenty of scope for buying in gold before we achieve “overbought” status. Going into a long weekend and with legions of potential black swans out there, this is no time to be short gold and we would not be surprised to see short-covering later today.

Of course gold, along with the other three precious metals, will only be allowed to run to the upside if JP Morgan et al allow it, which is point that never seems to bother Mr. Norman by its omission in any of his commentaries.  This showed up on the Sharps Pixley website early on Friday morning BST — and another link to it is here.

Ted Butler:  Another Opportunity

Commitments of Traders (COT) Report for COMEX silver futures featured the largest ever concentrated short position by the four largest traders and a new record large total commercial net short position. As I have been intoning for years, nothing suggests a possible market manipulation being in place than a large concentrated position. This is not my opinion alone; I’ve basically learned this from the CFTC. The only reason the agency calculates and publishes concentration data in every regulated futures market weekly is because an extremely large concentrated position is the first tip-off of potential market manipulation.

A concentrated position is a large market position held by a small number of traders that could grow large enough to overly influence price. Think Hunt Bros. in silver or Mr. 5{f02ffe5e8b39fd7974c2720d01ccf381ddc9ebb4164215842085b3c57e4f642e} in the Sumitomo copper manipulation, where a few buyers caused prices to be much higher than warranted by actual supply/demand fundamentals. While it’s easy for most to understand how a concentrated long position could result in a price considered to be artificially high, it’s harder for many to understand the concept of concentration on the short side, due to the nature of short selling being difficult for most to grasp.

Commodity law does not distinguish between an upward or downward price manipulation and the CFTC calculates and publishes concentration data on both the long side and short side of all regulated futures markets. The problem is that while the CFTC publishes the data that indicate that COMEX silver has the highest level of concentration ever seen on the short side of COMEX silver futures, thus providing the strongest possible evidence of a downward price manipulation, the agency refuses to do anything about it or even acknowledge it in any way.
But thanks to the unexpected confluence of events as described above, there may be an opportunity for you to pressure the regulators to address the concentrated short position in COMEX silver futures. And let me not beat around the bush – silver would be substantially higher in price were there to be no extreme concentrated short position. That’s a personal guarantee based upon simple market mechanics.

So, for anyone with an interest in higher silver prices or who is a believer that free markets, not controlled by large traders gaming the system, is the right way, then there is something you might consider doing. Now is an ideal time to raise these very important issues about concentration and manipulation in COMEX silver. The two officials most responsible for uncovering manipulation at the CFTC just started in this capacity on Monday and should be more open to the facts than otherwise. I can understand how many might feel that contacting these officials — and others might be a waste of time, given the agency’s failed record over the years in this regard. Still, I’m not talking about any burdensome effort, just sending a few e-mails or letters to get straight answers to some very good questions.

Ted provides the names, the e-mails addresses — and the material to send…in this commentary that was posted in the clear on the Internet site yesterday.  I urge you to read this carefully — and then spend a few minutes of your time drafting a short and to the point e-mail to these people.  I certainly plan on doing so this weekend.  Another link to this commentary is here.


The greater yellowlegs is a common shorebird in North America — and except for its slightly larger size and longer bill, is almost indistinguishable from its close cousin, the lesser yellowlegs.  They’re fairly common, but you have to go looking for them.  When I have seen them, I’m not sure which I’m looking at — and I suppose it doesn’t really matter since I’m not an ornithologist, whose job would depend upon it.  Click to enlarge


I’d prefer not to be wishywashy when it comes to COT market structure analysis, but in COMEX gold futures, we are about midway between the historical extremes of the past year and that’s just another way of saying neutral. Price momentum could easily carry gold higher, but it’s just as likely that the commercials might look to soon ring the cash register and rig a downside flush out of some unknown proportions. Gold did just as it was expected to do price-wise in climbing higher on managed money buying this year, but having done so, that changed the market structure from extremely bullish to extremely neutral.

Like Las Vegas, it’s different in silver, as its market structure is as bearish as it has ever been. With no big increase in total open interest for the reporting week, I wouldn’t expect another very large increase in technical fund buying and commercial selling in Friday’s report, but considering the large increases over the past two weeks, that’s not saying much. The COT market structure points to lower silver prices ahead and, as is usually the case, this is also the only bearish factor, as can be seen in most current market commentary.

While I’m as prepared (mentally) for a deliberate silver price take-down on COT considerations as I suppose I can ever be, there are other factors present, not the least of which is the growing awareness and knowledge that silver prices are manipulated on the COMEX. This COMEX positioning fraud and manipulation will fail when it is sufficiently exposed, just like all scams and frauds, and that day is closer than ever. But there are other considerations driving me to maintain a full investment exposure, not the least of which is JP Morgan’s continued grab for physical silver and the chance for an unexpected double cross involving the other 7 big COMEX silver shorts. — Silver analyst Ted Butler: 12 April 2017

Except for the swift and obviously non-free market price take-downs in gold, silver and platinum shortly before the London p.m. gold fix yesterday, nothing much should be read into Friday’s price action as the Easter long weekend approached.

Volumes were certainly way up there, but as Ted Butler has pointed out on several occasions, it’s the changes in open interest that’s associated with these volumes that really matters — and a lot of the time this volume is of the high-frequency trading variety — and most of that is closed out before the end of the trading day.

Here are the 6-month charts for all four precious metals, plus copper, once again — and Wednesday after-hours high price ticks are incorporated in Thursday’s dojis.  The click to enlarge feature helps with the first four charts.

And even though Good Friday is a holiday in the Christian world, there’s still going to be a Commitment of Traders Report posted today, which I find more than surprising.  And because of that fact, I’ll have a column tomorrow, but it’s going to shockingly brief, as there won’t be much other than that to report on.  Besides which, I’d kind of like to have a long weekend to enjoy every once in a while myself.

I hope yours is a good one — and I’ll see you here tomorrow.


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