Enormous silver ETF inflows. Is it about to take off? — Lawrie Williams

20 August 2019 — Tuesday


The commercial traders were all over the gold price starting right at the 6:00 p.m. EDT open in New York on Sunday evening — and the low tick of the day was set around 12:45 p.m. in London.  It was allowed to rally a bit until 10:45 a.m. in New York, but was turned lower about fifteen minutes before the COMEX close.  That lasted until a few minute before 4 p.m. in after-hours trading — and it bounced higher by a couple of dollars going into the 5:00 p.m. EDT close.

The high and low ticks in the October contract were reported as $1,517.10 and $1,497.30 in the October contract — and $1,523.60 and $1,503.30 in December.

Gold was closed at $1,495.10 spot, down $17.70 on the day.  Net volume was heavy, but not overly so…all things considered, at just under 275,500 contracts — and there was 21,000 contracts worth of roll-over/switch volume on top of that.

‘Day Boyz’ took silver down the same price path as gold, so I’ll spare you the play-by-play once again.

The high and low ticks in silver were recorded by the CME Group as $17.175 and $16.82 in the September contract.

Silver was closed at $16.835 spot, down 24 cents on the day. Net volume was nothing special at a bit under 54,500 contracts — and there was a bit over 26,500 contracts worth of roll-over/switch volume out of September and into future months.

Platinum traded mostly sideways until 2 p.m. China Standard Time on their Monday afternoon — and then edged a bit higher until shortly after the Zurich open.  It was then sold down to its noon CEST low tick — and crept rather unevenly higher until the afternoon gold fix in London.  It then took off to the upside, but ran into ‘something’ at the $856 spot mark.  It was then sold quietly lower starting a few minutes after 12 o’clock noon in COMEX trading in New York — and that lasted until 2 p.m. in the thinly-traded after-hours market.  It traded sideways into the 5:00 p.m. close from there.  Platinum was closed at $850 spot, up 2 whole dollars form Friday.

Palladium rose three or four bucks as soon as trading began at 6:00 p.m. in New York on Sunday evening — and then traded sideways until the Zurich open.  It was up 11 dollars in short order, but that was whittled away until 2 p.m. CEST/8 a.m. EDT — and it began to head sharply higher from that juncture.  It also ran into ‘something’s shortly after the afternoon gold fix in London — and its high tick came a few minutes before the COMEX close.  It inched quietly lower from there until the trading day ended at 5:00 p.m. EDT in New York.  Platinum was closed at $1,461 spot, up 31 dollars on the day.

The dollar index closed very late on Friday afternoon in New York at 98.14 — and opened up 3 basis points once trading commenced around 6:35 p.m. EDT on Sunday evening, which was 6:35 a.m. China Standard Time on their Monday morning.  It crawled a bit higher until 9:30 a.m. CST — and then chopped quietly lower until the 98.13 low tick was set around 8:50 a.m. in London.  I suspect that the usual ‘gentle hands’ appeared at that juncture — and from that point it chopped quietly and very unevenly higher until a few minutes before the 1:30 p.m. COMEX close in New York.  The ‘rally’ became a little stronger at that juncture — and the 98.39 high tick was set at 2 p.m. EDT — and from there it sold off a bit going into the 5:30 p.m. close.  The dollar index finished the Monday session at 98.35…up 21 basis points from Friday’s close.

It was another day where there was only a bit of correlation between what was going on in the currency market vs. what was happening in the precious metals.

Here’s the DXY chart…courtesy of BloombergClick to enlarge.

And here’s the 6-month U.S. dollar index chart from the folks over at the stockcharts.com Internet site.  The delta between is close…98.22…and the close on the DXY chart above, was 13 basis points on Monday.  Click to enlarge as well.

The gold stocks gapped down over 2 percent at the open, but caught a bid within fifteen minutes or so — and were back at the unchanged mark by shortly after 11 a.m. in New York trading.  Their respective high ticks were printed a very few minutes before 2 p.m. EDT — and they headed lower — and back into negative territory.  However, they did turn a bit higher in the final hour — and finished just off their afternoon low ticks.  The HUI closed down only 1.15 percent.

The silver equities followed an identical price path as their golden brethren, except their rally back into positive territory after their original gap down opens, was far more impressive.  Not surprisingly, their respective highs also came a few minutes before 2 p.m. — and even though they sold off a bit after that, they did manage to finish in the green by a hair.  Nick Laird’s Intraday Silver Sentiment/Silver 7 Index closed up 0.24 percent.  Click to enlarge if necessary.

And here’s Nick’s 1-year Silver Sentiment/Silver 7 Index chart, updated with Monday’s doji.  Click to enlarge as well.

Today’s stand-out rallies in the precious metal shares was just as much a surprise as their corresponding falls when  precious metal prices were rising on a couple of different days over the last few weeks.  The thought crossed my find that maybe the powers-that-be were buying shares on days like yesterday in order to sell them on big up days to prevent the precious metal equities from getting too frisky.  That’s pure speculation on my part, but would seem plausible.  Because if they didn’t want to sell the shares naked short…doing it this way, they would be selling shares that they already own — and the end result would be the same.

The CME Daily Delivery Report showed that 118 gold and zero silver contracts were posted for delivery within the COMEX-approved depositories on Wednesday.

In gold, there were four short/issuers — and the three largest were Advantage, International F.C. Stone and Marex Spectron…with 54, 39 and 21 contracts out of their respective client accounts.  There were seven long/stopper — and the four largest were JPMorgan with 46 contracts for its client account…Australia’s Macquarie Futures with 34 for its own account…International F.C. Stone with 17 for its client account — and Advantage with 15 contracts for its client account as well.

The link to yesterday’s Issuers and Stoppers Report is here.

The CME Preliminary Report for the Monday trading session showed that gold open interest in August fell by 845 contracts, leaving 761 still open, minus the 118 contracts mentioned two paragraphs ago.  Friday’s Daily Delivery Report showed that 824 gold contracts were actually posted for delivery today, so that means that 845-824=21 gold contracts disappeared from the August Delivery month.  Silver o.i. in August was unchanged at 2 contracts still around.  Friday’s Daily Delivery Report showed that zero silver contracts were posted for delivery today.

There were no reported changes in either GLD or SLV on Monday.

The folks over at Switzerland’s Zürcher Kantonalbank updated their website with the goings-on insider their gold and silver ETFs as of the close of business on Friday, August 16 — and this is what they had to report.  They added 4,731 troy ounces of gold, plus 272,767 troy ounces of silver — and these amounts are not included in the totals on the two charts further down, because the folks at ZKB don’t provide this data until Monday…three days after Nick updates his data for the prior week.

The U.S. Mint had tiny sales report yesterday…sort of.  They sold 500 troy ounces of gold eagles, but reversed 30,000 of the silver eagle sales that they reported last Friday.

There was a tiny bit of activity in gold over at the COMEX-approved depositories on the U.S. east coast on Friday.  There was 160.755 troy ounces/5 kilobars [SGE kilobar weight] deposited at Brink’s, Inc. — and 803.750 troy ounces/25 kilobars [U.K./U.S. kilobar weight] was dropped off at Manfra, Tordella & Brookes, Inc.  There was a big paper transfer from the Eligible category and into Registered over at HSBC USA…76,305 troy ounces worth.  Without doubt, that’s going out the door during the August delivery month.  The link to that is here.

There was a bit of activity in silver.  Nothing was reported received, but 628,846 troy ounces was shipped out.  The lion’s share of the ‘out’ activity was one truckload…600,402 troy ounces…that departed Canada’s Scotiabank.  The remaining 25,382 troy ounces — and 3,060 troy ounces, were shipped out of CNT and Delaware respectively.  There was also 4,916 troy ounces transferred from Registered and back into Eligible over at CNT.  The link to all this is here.

There wasn’t much activity over at the COMEX-approved gold kilobar depositories in Hong Kong on their Friday.  Nothing was reported received — and only 50 were shipped out.  All of this activity occurred at Brink’s, Inc. of course — and I won’t bother linking it.

Here are the usual two charts that Nick Laird passes around on the weekend.  They show the amount of physical gold and silver in all know depositories, mutual funds and ETFs as of the close of business on Friday, August 16.  During that week they added 584,000 troy ounces of gold, plus 17.65 million troy ounces of silver…plus the gold and silver added to Switzerland’s Zürcher Kantonalbank that I reported on above.  Click to enlarge for both.

Just eye-balling the above silver chart, it certainly appears that around 113 million troy ounces of silver have been shoved into all known depositories, mutual funds and ETFs over the last nine weeks.

I have an average number of stories and articles for you today.


Cheap money could deliver big fourth quarter for stocks, but it’s just delaying the inevitable, strategist warns

Sounds like it’ll be raining jobs, growth and profit across the U.S. for the foreseeable future, if White House trade adviser Peter Navarro has it right.

I can tell you with certainty… we’re going to have a strong economy through 2020 and beyond with a bull market,” he told ABC News in an interview on Sunday morning. “The Fed will be lowering rates. The ECB will be engaging in monetary stimulus. China will be engaging in fiscal stimulus.”

Yes, cheap money at home and abroad. Easy, right?

Don’t be fooled, people, it’s all “a giant con game,” according to the Northman Trader blog’s Sven Henrich. In our call of the day, he warns that, without the steady injections from central banks, a global recession would already be here, with a U.S. recession not far behind.

Confidence must be maintained under all circumstances. This has been the game for 10 years and hence any market drops that would add pressure to confidence must be averted,” he wrote in a post over the weekend.

This article appeared on the marketwatch.com Internet site at 10:17 a.m. EDT on Monday morning — and comes to us courtesy of Swedish reader Patrik Ekdahl.  Another link to it is hereGregory Mannarino had an excellent rant on Sunday afternoon — and spends some time talking about the precious metals and cryptocurrencies.  It’s worth your while — and is linked here.  My thanks to Roy Stephens for that one.

It’s Official: Trump Makes First Demand For Fed to Restart QE, Urges 100 bps Rate Cut

One week ago, when we discussed that as a result of the accelerated rebuild of cash by the U.S. Treasury, first Bank of America, then JPMorgan suggested that the Fed may be forced to restart QE soon as a result of the upcoming sharp drop in liquidity, we said that “apparently this is something that the Fed, which until recently was engaging in additional liquidity draining via QT, was unaware about, and since a return of QE – something that Trump has yet to demand – would cause all sorts of political problems and demand lengthy congressional explanations.”

Fast forward to today, when what we expected would happen, happened as Trump made his first official demand for “some quantitative easing” (even if Congress may choose to eventually stay out of this as both political parties are now desperate for the Fed to resume monetizing the U.S. deficit on the road to helicopter money, i.e. MMT).

To wit, despite the “strongest economy in the world,” it appears President Trump is not satisfied.

Our Economy is very strong, despite the horrendous lack of vision by Jay Powell and the Fed, but the Democrats are trying to “will” the Economy to be bad for purposes of the 2020 Election.  Very Selfish! Our dollar is so strong that it is sadly hurting other parts of the world…

And for the first time, Trump also called for more QE…

The Fed Rate, over a fairly short period of time, should be reduced by at least 100 basis points, with perhaps some quantitative easing as well. If that happened, our Economy would be even better, and the World Economy would be greatly and quickly enhanced-good for everyone!

This Zero Hedge story showed up on their Internet site at 11:38 a.m. on Monday morning EDT — and I thank Brad Robertson for sending it our way.  Another link to it is here Gregory Mannarino’s 8:13 minute rant after the market close on Monday is linked here.

Negative Interest Rates Are Not Normal — Bill Bonner

Every week, we reach new heights of weirdness:

…the worldwide total of debt trading at negative interest rates rose to $17 trillion…

…nearly 15% of S&P 500 companies no longer earn enough money to even cover the interest on their loans…

…the yield on U.S. 30-year bonds fell below 2% – lower than the yield on 30-day Treasury bills…

…and Danish banks are offering fixed-rate mortgages at zero interest over 20 years.

Thanks to negative rates, you can now take out a fixed-rate zero-interest mortgage for 20 years.

You borrow the money. You buy the house. You sell the house 20 years later… and you give back the money. You would have enjoyed two decades of free housing.

This very interesting commentary from Bill put in an appearance on the bonnerandpartners.com Internet site early on Monday morning EDT — and another link to it is here.

Falling From Grace — Jeff Thomas

Years ago, Doug Casey mentioned in a correspondence to me, “Empires fall from grace with alarming speed.”

Every now and then, you receive a comment that, although it may have been stated casually, has a lasting effect, as it offers uncommon insight. For me, this was one of those and it’s one that I’ve kept handy at my desk since that time, as a reminder.

I’m from a British family, one that left the U.K. just as the British Empire was about to begin its decline. They expatriated to the “New World” to seek promise for the future.

As I’ve spent most of my life centred in a British colony – the Cayman Islands – I’ve had the opportunity to observe many British contract professionals who left the U.K. seeking advancement, which they almost invariably find in Cayman. Curiously, though, most returned to the U.K. after a contract or two, in the belief that the U.K. would bounce back from its decline, and they wanted to be on board when Britain “came back.”

This, of course, never happened. The U.S. replaced the U.K. as the world’s foremost empire, and although the U.K. has had its ups and downs over the ensuing decades, it hasn’t returned to its former glory.

And it never will.

This very worthwhile commentary from Jeff was posted on the internationalman.com Internet site on Monday morning EDT — and another link to it is here.

Fearful Argentines Pull Dollars From Banks After Election Shock

Argentines have been withdrawing dollars from banks and keeping them at home since President Mauricio Macri’s defeat in a key primary election sent the peso tumbling.

Savers pulled more than $700 million from their dollar-denominated accounts on Monday and Tuesday alone, according to the most recent official data. That’s equivalent to 2.3% of total dollar deposits in the financial system. It was also the largest two-day withdrawal in percentage terms in more than five years.

Long used to currency crises, many Argentines are still traumatized by the so-called corralito — economic measures to stop a 2001 bank run that effectively froze bank accounts and halted dollar withdrawals.

Those dollars are considered part of the central bank’s gross foreign reserves, and the withdrawals help explain why reserves dropped by $2.6 billion this week, to $63.7 billion.

This Bloomberg news item appeared on their website at 7:32 a.m. PDT on Friday morning — and I found it embedded in a GATA dispatch.  Another link to it is here.  A companion article to this from the cnbc.com Internet site is headlined “Argentina’s opposition candidate says the country cannot pay IMF loan back, wants renegotiation” — and that comes to us courtesy of Patrik Ekdahl.

These Nations Faced Bankruptcy. Now Their Bonds Yield Nothing

Less than a decade ago, investors could barely be compensated enough to hold the bonds of Spain and Portugal for fear the nations could be severed from the European Union. Now, they are a hair’s breadth away from having to pay for the privilege.

An unprecedented surge in sovereign debt across the world has driven 10-year yields in the Iberian nations to record lows just shy of 0%. With about $16 trillion of global debt now paying negative rates, investors are snapping up positive yields wherever they can find them — even if that means getting into some of the euro area’s riskier markets.  Click to enlarge.

While that marks an extraordinary turnaround for countries once on the brink of bankruptcy, it also highlights a new era for bond markets where yields are perpetually low and central banks can do little to revive inflation. And it comes with its own perils — the growing fear that a bond bubble is in the making.

I am afraid all curves are going to zero and all rates are going to zero,” said James Athey, senior investment manager at Aberdeen Standard Investments, who currently has no positions in the debt of Spain or Portugal. “It would be an incredibly concerning signal.”

Yields have turned negative in the highest-rated euro-area markets, as pessimism deepens over global growth prospects. The rally is also being fueled by rising expectations of policy easing by the European Central Bank. The ECB should come up with an “impactful and significant” stimulus package at its next meeting in September, policy maker Olli Rehn was reported as saying on Thursday.

In a regime of financial repression, this is normal,” said Jorge Garayo, a fixed-income strategist at Societe Generale SA, referring to the ultra-low yields. “The big question is how the whole thing unravels over time. Lower yields incentivize more borrowing when debt levels are already at high levels.”  [Emphasis mine – Ed]

This very worthwhile Bloomberg story put in an appearance on their Internet site at 9:00 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time on Sunday evening — and was updated about six hours later.  It’s the final contribution of the day from Patrik Ekdhal — and I thank him on your behalf.  Another link to it is here.

Today Saudi Arabia finally lost the war on Yemen” — Eric Zuesse

On August 17th the “Moon of Alabama” blog headlined “Long Range Attack On Saudi Oil Field Ends War On Yemen”, and opened:

Today Saudi Arabia finally lost the war on Yemen. It has no defenses against new weapons the Houthis in Yemen acquired. These weapons threaten the Saudis economic lifelines. This today was the decisive attack:

Drones launched by Yemen’s Houthi rebels attacked a massive oil and gas field deep inside Saudi Arabia’s sprawling desert on Saturday, causing what the kingdom described as a “limited fire” in the second such recent attack on its crucial energy industry. …

The Saudi acknowledgement of the attack came hours after Yahia Sarie, a military spokesman for the Houthis, issued a video statement claiming the rebels launched 10 bomb-laden drones targeting the field in their “biggest-ever” operation. He threatened more attacks would be coming.

New drones and missiles displayed in July 2019 by Yemen’s Houthi-allied armed forces:

Today’s attack is a check-mate move against the Saudis. Shaybah is some 1,200 kilometers (750 miles) from Houthi-controlled territory. There are many more important economic targets within that range. …

The attack conclusively demonstrates that the most important assets of the Saudis are now under threat. This economic threat comes on top of a seven percent budget deficit the IMF predicts for Saudi Arabia. Further Saudi bombing against the Houthi will now have very significant additional cost that might even endanger the viability of the Saudi state. The Houthi have clown prince Mohammad bin Salman by the balls and can squeeze those at will.

We’ll see about that, but it sounds promising.  This commentary/opinion piece was posted on the off-guardian.com Internet site on Monday sometime — and I thank Roy Stephens for sending it our way.  Another link to it is here.

Hong Kong: Don’t Provoke the Dragon — Eric Margolis

Time was when flying to Hong Kong was a really big thrill – or maybe scare would be a better term. Its old airport, Kai Tak, was right in the middle of bustling downtown Hong Kong. Flying into Kai Tak used up 11 of one’s 12 lives.

The wide-bodied jumbo aircraft would drop down into a long fjord that was usually shrouded in fog or mist. The nervous passenger would see nothing but cloud. Suddenly, the aircraft would break out of the thick cloud cover right over the airport.

To the left and right were apartment buildings festooned with drying laundry at the same height as one’s plane. The big 747 airliner landed with a huge thud and screaming tires right in front of another bunch of apartment buildings.

Even for veteran air travelers like myself, this was a heart-stopping experience. Amazingly, I recall only one crash at Kai Tak, which we used to call ‘Suicide Airport.’ Still, it was like landing a jumbo-jet on New York’s Park Avenue. Not for the faint of heart.

In 1998, Kai Tak was closed and replaced by the modern, spacious Chek Lap Kok, better known as Hong Kong International. It quickly became one of Asia’s principal aviation hubs.

This week, Hong Kong airport was besieged and shut down by thousands of young local demonstrators protesting China’s attempt to impose a new extradition law on Hong Kong that would allow Beijing to arrest Hong Kong residents for ‘anti-state’ activities. The deal that Hong Kong’s former colonial Britain signed with China calls for ‘two-states, one nation,’ with considerable independence for the former island colony.

But anyone who thinks China’s iron-fisted rulers will allow a scrap of paper to limit their influence over Hong Kong is dead wrong. For them, Hong Kong is as much a part of China as Shanghai. So, too, is Taiwan.

This very worthwhile commentary from Eric was posted on his Internet site on Saturday — and another link to it is here.

Papua New Guinea Aims to Retain 30% of Exported Gold, May Change Currency Pegs

Papua New Guinea wants to retain at least 30% of the gold it currently exports as it transforms its economy under a new government leadership, the country’s commerce minister said on Monday.
PNG was the world’s 14th largest gold producer in 2018, according to the World Gold Council. Its assets include the Porgera gold mine, majority controlled by a joint venture between Barrick Gold Corp and Zijin Mining Group , which has a lease currently up for renewal.

PNG’s Minister for Commerce and Industry Wera Mori told an investor forum in Sydney that the resources-rich nation was developing policies to keep more of the commodities it produces in the country to improve its economy.

We are in the process of developing the framework to retain at least 30% of our gold that we export every year,” Mori told an investment forum in Sydney.

Mori said that PNG would also consider pegging its currency, the kina, to gold, rather than the U.S. dollar. [Emphasis mine – Ed]

PNG’s central bank currently fixes its currency to a narrow U.S. dollar band, propping up the kina’s value while creating a shortage of dollars available in the Pacific nation.

And as GATA‘s Chris Powell said in his comments on this article…”Wait until the IMF tells them it’s against the rules to link your currency to gold, and unfortunately PNG is a member. But then why not resign?”  This Reuters article, filed from Sydney, showed up on their website on August 19 ‘down under’ — and another link to it is here.

Hong Kong turmoil sends gold investors to seek haven in Singapore

Escalating political turmoil in Hong Kong is spooking some gold investors.

J. Rotbart & Co., which helps customers buy, store and transport precious metals, says it has seen an increase in demand for gold storage in Singapore from new clients — even when they’re based in Hong Kong or mainland China. In the last 10 weeks, the breakdown of requests has skewed to around 75% for Singapore and 10% for Hong Kong, compared with a split of about 50-35 previously, said Joshua Rotbart, who runs the bullion house, which services high net-worth individuals, from Hong Kong.

Protests that started in early June against a bill easing extraditions to the mainland have morphed into a broader stand against China’s rule over the financial hub. Demonstrators forced the city’s international airport to shut last week, and fears have grown that Chinese troops from the People’s Liberation Army may be deployed to restore order, a move that could risk an international backlash and irreparable harm to the city’s economy.

Some clients are afraid of PLA intervention in Hong Kong, or of another closure of the airport, which will make it difficult to move their gold out of the city, as gold is shipped on commercial flights,” said Rotbart.

The city’s financial rivalry with Singapore is a feature of modern Asia but stretches back to their shared colonial past under British rule. Rotbart operates in both and also has an office in Manila. Rising violence in Hong Kong is likely to undermine investment there, according to Bloomberg Intelligence, with Singapore a probable beneficiary.

This gold-related Bloomberg news item was posted on their website at 10:27 PDT on Sunday night — and I plucked it from a GATA dispatch as well.  Another link to it is here.

Enormous silver ETF inflows. Is it about to take off? — Lawrie Williams

Silver offers the big dilemma among the major precious metals.  Gold has been strong over the past month or so, seemingly now consolidating above the US$1,500 level, while platinum and palladium are behaving largely on basic industrial supply/demand fundamentals.  But silver, which is, in effect, some kind of hybrid monetary/industrial metal, has performed relatively poorly – at least as far as the out and out silver bulls are concerned.  But could this all be about to change with the silver bulls getting their day in the sun?

True, the gold:silver ratio (GSR) has come down from its peaks signifying a better percentage performance for silver over the volatile past month.  (The lower the GSR the better for the silver investor).  But the GSR is still at a high 88.6 level (admittedly down from 93 only a few weeks ago) and remains at historically elevated levels.  Certain moves in the silver markets do point to this perhaps changing – perhaps dramatically – in the days, weeks and months ahead provided that the gold price remains relatively strong.

Historically, silver has comfortably outperformed gold price-wise in a rising gold price scenario.  Things are probably changing in this respect with silver’s big industrial off-take making it more subject to the vagaries of industrial supply and demand factors, but despite this we do expect the GSR to come down some more – perhaps significantly so – in the relatively near future.  And it looks like the big money is anticipating such a move too!  And where the big money goes the markets tend to follow.

On what basis are we coming to this conclusion?  The answer is down to enormous inflows into silver ETFs, – and into the biggest of them all, SLV, in particular, and into mutual funds.  According to newsletter writer, Ed Steer (www.edsteergoldsilver.com) who follows these statistics closely,  17.6 million troy ounces (547 tonnes) of silver have been added to all the world’s know depositories, mutual funds and ETFs in the past week.  In the past three business days SLV alone added 14.6 million ounces (454 tonnes) of silver.  These kinds of huge silver accumulations into SLV in particular, have been ongoing for the past 2-3 months.  With the big money exerting a major degree of control over the CME silver futures market, and thereby the price, these major silver flows suggest that there could be a major silver price coup in prospect.  Steer notes that few commentators – apart from silver guru Ted Butler and, by extension, himself – seem to have picked up on these massive silver accumulations which he sees as a major potential factor in likely short to medium term silver price movement.

This worthwhile commentary from Lawrie put in an appearance on the Sharps Pixley website on Saturday sometime — and another link to it is here.


After lunch in Hope on May 27th, we drove by their aerodrome [YHE]…which is all grass — and used extensively by the Vancouver Soaring Association.  I used to be a licensed glider instructor in my younger days, so I was certainly interested in checking it out.  The first photo is from the end of the runway looking mostly east towards the coastal mountain range…what a view!  The second is of the strip taken from a paved road that ran alongside the runway — and the third is of the absolutely deserted road that I’d just taken the second photo from.  And here’s a short video shot from a glider thermalling at Hope.  The town — and Kawkawa Lake show up at several points during the video clip.  Enjoy the vistas — and full screen viewing is a must.  Click to enlarge.


It was the second down day in a row for gold — and the third in silver.  However, it’s far too soon to tell whether or not we’re going to get the “Full Monty” from JPMorgan et al. to the downside.  I would think not — and as I said a couple of times last week, if we do get an engineered price decline, it will be quick and ugly.  And as Ted said in his weekly commentary on Saturday…”The current COMEX gold market structure is bearish — and a severe sell-off can’t be rule out.  But it’s also the only bearish factor in gold at this time.”

So we wait some more.

Here are the 6-month charts for all of the Big 6 commodities — and the above mentioned changes should be noted.  Other than that, there’s not much to see.  However, I should point out that all the price activity in gold, silver and platinum that occurred after the COMEX close in New York yesterday, doesn’t appear on Monday’s dojis on these charts.  Click to enlarge.

And as I type this paragraph, the London open is less than a minute away — and I see that after not being allowed to do much of anything in Far East trading on their Tuesday morning, the gold price began to tick higher starting around 1 p.m. China Standard Time, but was turned lower the moment that the 2:15 p.m. CST afternoon gold fix was put to bed in Shanghai — and is currently up $1.10 an ounce. Silver was guided along a similar price path — and it’s up 8 cents. Ditto for platinum — and it’s up a buck. Palladium hadn’t done much in the early going, but it also jumped a bit higher in the fifteen minutes leading up to the afternoon gold fix in Shanghai — and it’s up 2 dollars.

Net HFT gold volume is pretty quiet at just under 40,000 contracts — and there’s 1,099 contracts — and there’s contracts worth of roll-over/switch volume in this precious metal. Net HFT silver volume is also pretty quiet at a bit over 7,200 contracts — and there’s already 2,996 contracts worth or roll-over/switch volume out of September and into future months.

The dollar index opened up 1 basis point once trading commenced at 7:45 p.m. EDT in New York on their Monday evening, which was 7:45 a.m. China Standard Time on their Tuesday morning. It was down about five basis points a couple of times in Far East trading, but is currently up 2 basis points as of 7:45 a.m. BST in London/8:45 a.m. CEST in Zurich. Not much to see here.

Today, at the close of COMEX trading at 1:30 p.m. EDT, is the cut-off for this Friday’s Commitment of Traders Report — and I’ll venture a guess as to what might be in it in my Wednesday column, once I’ve had a look at Tuesday’s doji.

And as I post today’s missive on the website at 4:02 a.m. EDT, I note that after the brief sell-offs in all four precious metals at the afternoon gold fix in Shanghai, they’re all rallying now that London and Zurich are open. Gold is up $3.60 the ounce — and silver is up 12 cents as the first hour of trading in London draws to a close. Platinum and palladium are now up 1 dollar and 5 dollars respectively as the first hour of Zurich trading ends.

Gross gold volume has picked up in the last hour — and is a bit over 53,500 contracts — and minus what little roll-over/switch volume there is, net HFT gold volume is around 50,500 contracts. Net HFT silver volume is still pretty light at about 8,200 contracts — and there’s 3,664 contracts worth of roll-over/switch volume out of September and into future months…mostly December.

The dollar index hasn’t done much during the last hour — and as of 8:45 a.m. in London/9:45 a.m. in Zurich, it’s up 3 basis points.

That’s all I have for today’s column — and I’ll see you here tomorrow.